Our Journey
There are very few (if any) occurrences in life where you can place a bet on an event that has already taken place - Enter the Brownlow Medal.
What started as a hobby in the late 2000’s soon became a yearly obsession, when a group of colleagues collaborated to try and successfully pick the winner/s of the Brownlow and ultimately turn the exercise into a profitable experience.
Before long, our team got to work on developing a system that factors in all of the relevant elements to predict the most likely outcomes. After several years of tinkering, our model is now steadfast and has been proven effective for multiple AFL seasons. Now we take on the challenge to share this with the wider public and unlock positive returns for other canny Brownlow followers.
Our Model
Without getting bogged down in repeated random sampling or ordinal logistic regression, our model takes into account the most relevant statistical data points - Disposals, contested possessions, intercept possessions, clearances, disposal efficiency, inside 50’s, score involvements and goals (plus a few others), providing weighting to each category depending on its relevance. Most notably, we also factor in a number of subjective measurements, including:
- Polling History of an individual
- Ability of a player to ‘catch the eye’
- Physical characteristics
- Media hype surrounding the player
Based on the data provided, we then present our proposed votes for each match as a probability, rather than a simple 3-2-1. After all, umpires are subjective in nature and thus Brownlow voting (or predictions) will never be straight forward. We are, however, confident that our model provides us with the BEST POSSIBLE CHANCE to understand outcomes and provide profitability to consumers, as has been proven time and time again.
Past Results
In 2022, our model successfully predicted Patrick Cripps to win, as well as 16/18 of the team leaders, which lead to a very profitable return.
ROI
2023 - 28.9 %
2022 - 119.2 %
2021 - 47.5 %
2020 - 798.1%
2019 - 30.6 %
If you would like any further detail, please send us an email.